Jan. 9, 2006 – Page 146
The sixth year is the worst for second-termers. Bill Clinton was impeached. Ronald Reagan suffered the Iran-contra scandal. Richard Nixon resigned.
There are enough elements in place for a perfect storm to jeopardize Bush’s second term. Bush bashing is in season. He’s accused of breaking the law to spy on Americans. The ongoing CIA leak investigation has already claimed one top White House aide. An unfolding corruption scandal of epic proportions looms over Republican-run Washington in the wake of Republican lobbyist Jack Abramoff’s plea deal to testify against lawmakers. Violence in Iraq threatens to scuttle Bush’s aims there. Even the West Virginia mining tragedy could turn against him, shedding light on his administration’s lax regulation of coal companies.
But sitting in the Roosevelt Room the first workday of the new year, Bush did not come across as a president who will let the sixth-year curse get him down. Surrounded by a loyal team — including embattled political adviser Karl Rove, who could become a major headache if the CIA leak probe ensnares him — Bush was defiant and passionate about how he sees himself in these troubled times.
“The American people expect to be protected,” the president insisted, his voice rising with indignation as he leaned forward and sliced through the air with his right hand, as though he might slap anyone who dared to disagree.
Bush did verbally slap Democrats who are holding up renewal of the 2001 counterterrorism law, now set to expire in three weeks. “For partisan reasons, in my mind, people have not stepped up and agreed that it’s still necessary to protect the country. The enemy has not gone away. They’re still there. And I expect Congress to understand that we’re still at war, and they’ve got to give us the tools necessary to win.”
Some might say this is another straw-man argument from a White House addicted to putting outrageous words in the mouths of its foes in order to knock them down. Lawmakers seeking to trim the powers granted by the Patriot Act are not saying it isn’t “necessary to protect the country,” or that the “enemy has gone away.” Some on his team knowingly overstate the claims of their critics to score debating points, but I think Bush truly believes that those who disagree with his choices, such as extending the Patriot Act as is, are giving up on the war against terror.
Casting himself as the nation’s ultimate guardian against terror gave Bush a defining persona eight months into his first term. Now it can save his second term, too. Erring on the side of protection is an argument that will probably keep most on his side. Even if Bush’s order for warrantless surveillance is deemed a violation of law, at least he can argue he did it for the right reasons. Nixon was forced out partly because of a similar order, but his purpose was selfish — a shocking breach of law designed to spy on political enemies.
Presidents have long hidden behind the veil of national security to justify egregious behavior. But Bush has the luxury of being able to argue that, since we really are at war against an insidious and unconventional threat, extraordinary measures are justified.
No matter what one thinks of the wisdom of Bush’s choices, it is tough to reasonably doubt that he wakes up every morning utterly dedicated to combating those around the world who will kill Americans anywhere and in any way they can.
Sure, critics will say Bush makes decisions that make us less safe, that invading Iraq created a home for terrorists, strengthening their cause. But Bush is likely to prevail in the public eye — even if he must resort to an old saying I remember from a judge in Florida, who always prefaced his rulings by announcing, “I’m often in error, but never in doubt.”
Americans forgive error, but not weakness. Bush is on the winning side of that equation. Consider the modest recent boost in his ratings after he acknowledged some errors in Iraq. That admission, mixed with the defiance and certitude of last week’s Roosevelt Room performance, strikes a balance that could keep his presidency intact.
It might not be enough to save his legislative agenda, to win more tax cuts or retool Social Security, but it is probably enough to silence talk of impeachment, keep his party in power on Capitol Hill — and survive the six-year itch.
Contributing Editor Craig Crawford is a news analyst for MSNBC, CNBC and “The Early Show” on CBS. He can be reached at ccrawford@cq.com.