His knees are still wobbling, but it now looks like President Bush is at least back on his feet. Winning war votes on Capitol Hill and even gaining some grudging support from European leaders has lifted him up off the canvas. You can’t call this 15-rounder over yet. In fact, it’s time to start speculating on how he can turn this ill-starred, second term bout into his legacy for the ages.
First off, let’s not forget the fact that, regardless of what happens to his party in the November election, Bush will be sitting in the Oval Office for two more years. The lame duck calls, like Mark Twain’s obituary, are premature. True, nothing very serious is possible until after the congressional midterms run their course. But once the votes are counted and the House and Senate reconvene, the pendulum swings back to the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue, where the president gets to set the agenda, take the initiative and control the media spotlight.
The poolside debate in Washington this summer will center on whether Democrats can take one or both chambers in the coming 110th Congress. You can argue yes or no with equal credibility. But no one on either side of the aisle is predicting that the Republicans will increase their majorities in either the House or Senate. Instead, it’s almost universally accepted that, at best, the GOP will go into 2007 still in control but with narrower margins than the relatively slim ones they enjoy now.
It’s certainly not a recipe for going out in high style.
So come January, the guy in the White House begins operating in the legislative equivalent of soccer’s penalty time. How can he possibly score a winning goal with the clock ticking out and the defense stacked against him?
It’s a tall order, but when you look at recent two-term predecessors, history suggests a couple of ways this could work.
Ronald Reagan, who lost control of the Senate in the middle of his second term, rose from the ashes of the Iran-contra debacle and went for the big and the bold. He courted Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev in a series of maneuvers that many now credit with ending the Cold War. While he lost or ceded much of his power to Congress, he was still able to command the world stage. He left office as a hero to his acolytes and with the grudging respect of his opponents.
Bill Clinton, who had been operating with an opposition Congress since the middle of his first term, was hamstrung by impeachment and a Senate trial at the midpoint of his second go-round. But he focused on smaller legislative initiatives and smartly staged public events, such as funerals, in a public relations campaign that eventually restored his personal popularity.
Of course, the war on terror — and the Iraq conflict in particular — are likely to dominate Bush’s final two years, and only a favorable outcome in this arena gives him any chance of leaving a positive impression overall. It helps Bush that foreign affairs require the least participation and cooperation from Congress. That is why so many presidents set their sights overseas when their influence at the Capitol wanes.
So I look for Bush to seek history-making opportunities in the international realm, from dealing with threats from Iran and North Korea to seeking common ground and possibly even trade deals with China and other erstwhile adversaries.
While the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks on U.S. soil — and Bush’s intensely aggressive response to them — ensure a page or more in history books, there is work to be done to make his presidency memorable on the domestic front. There is little time for new beginnings on topics such as immigration reform, which is floundering in an emotional crossfire within his own party.
Early in his presidency, Bush was well on his way to making historic changes to the tax code. He not only cut taxes but also invited bold talk of wide-ranging changes such as a flat tax or a value-added tax. The country still yearns for a way out of the Byzantine tax code that only seems to get more complicated. Feeding that demand with revolutionary ideas could win Bush much-needed momentum. But to win the bipartisan support required for success, he would have to give ground on such things as ending corporate loopholes.
Bush also managed a strong beginning on education and prescription drugs for retirees. Regardless of what you think of them on the merits, both served as touchstones for the compassionate conservatism he so skillfully advocated in winning the presidency.
Getting back to the common ground he once had with the likes of
Contributing Editor Craig Crawford is a news analyst for MSNBC, CNBC and “The Early Show” on CBS. He can be reached at ccrawford@cq.com.