What if nobody really controls Congress after the Nov. 7 election? It could happen. Look at anybody’s math on possible outcomes for the congressional campaigns, and you can see a real chance that either party winds up with such a thin margin of victory that nothing significant gets done for the remainder of President Bush’s second and last term in office.
Indeed, it would seem that the most likely shape of the political landscape on the morning after next month’s election could be a near-even split of the votes between the parties in either the House or the Senate, or both. While it was once true that in the final days of campaigns the voters tended to swing en masse one way or the other, the voting public is now so evenly polarized between Democrats and Republicans that, more and more, we are seeing congressional elections end in what amounts to a stalemate.
While the early stages of the House page scandal suggested a windfall for Democrats in their drive to retake that chamber, the power of incumbency and gerrymandering will limit the number of seats they gain in the wake of this unfolding drama.
If this campaign labors to a draw, the wildest follow-up scenarios would seem like scenes from a drug-induced novel if not for the real-life experiences of recent years. Either chamber could fall into the hands of Democrats or Republicans with a single vote to spare. Such a result opens up two possibilities that would recall dramatic events of a few years ago.
First, memories of Florida’s upending recount in the 2000 presidential election could be evoked by the prospect of a weeks-long recount in one or two tight races, leaving control of an entire chamber in doubt. Most congressional elections feature one or two contested races that are decided by as little as a vote or two. These battles are just entertaining sideshows — unless the results could actually swing overall power on Capitol Hill.
Next, do not forget how a lone Vermont senator swung control of the Senate from the Republicans to the Democrats in 2001. When Sen.
For some lawmakers, loyalty to their party is so tenuous that it is entirely plausible that more than a few would be willing to make deals with the other side. It could be like the rush to the front of an overbooked plane when the airline staff announces sweet deals to switch to another flight.
If Democratic or Republican leaders need just one or two switchers to claim control, they would not hesitate to offer choice committee assignments, bigger offices or anything else a potential switcher might desire.
A combination of both scenarios could play out if it’s a contest for control on Capitol Hill. The parties would dispatch armies of lawyers to contest tight races while the politicians in Washington warm up the back rooms for behind-the-scenes dealmaking.
No matter what happens — even if Republicans eke out a majority on Capitol Hill — Bush will be in for an unpleasant final stretch of his presidency. This will not be the Congress he once knew. In the House, the GOP will probably lack the votes or the effective leadership to rubber-stamp his agenda. And in the Senate, the president’s party seemingly has no chance to gain the seats needed to thwart Democratic filibusters.
Even if the November election quickly determines which party is to rule, the balance of power appears unlikely to tip very far in either direction. This is a recipe for paralysis, especially for just about anything Bush wants to get done.
There is a bright side for the president if Democrats increase their clout on the other end of Pennsylvania Avenue. He would have a better shot at reaching one of his main domestic goals: immigration reform. Conservative Republicans in the House were the prime obstacles to Bush’s passionately held desire to ease the way for undocumented workers to legally keep their American jobs.
Beyond that prospect, the biggest winners after this election could be the independent-oriented lawmakers who can work on either side of the political fence. Consider what a bright future Sen. Joe Lieberman faces if he wins in Connecticut as an independent.
If either party comes within a single vote of holding a Senate majority, Lieberman could go from being an outcast among Democrats to the most powerful king maker in Washington. Likewise for Republican and Democratic fence sitters in the House.
Fasten your seat belts. This midterm election could last well beyond November.
Contributing Editor Craig Crawford is a news analyst for MSNBC, CNBC and “The Early Show” on CBS. He can be reached at ccrawford@cq.com.