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CQ WEEKLY
July 11, 2005 – Page 1926

Craig Crawford’s 1600: Succession Strategy

Were I Karl Rove, I’d be looking for something other than grand jury investigations and a Social Security overhaul to think about these days. I’d get back to the basics I am good at, like picking a Republican to back for the White House in 2008.

This is no small question for President Bush’s political architect. For the first time in more than half a century, the GOP does not have an anointed front-runner for its next presidential nomination. Bush is out after two terms, and his vice president, Dick Cheney, has already taken himself out of consideration. For a party that prides itself on giving a nod to the next man in line, it’s a rare open field.

That could well make Rove the kingmaker. It’s not clear whether he will jump on any horse for 2008, but you can bet every potential candidate wants him pulling the reins. So how would Rove size up the GOP’s emerging presidential class? Here are my (alphabetized) notes as I imagine I am he:

George Allen: The fairest of the lot, as in pleasant smile and folksy demeanor. Love the pickup truck he rides around town in, but lose the aides in business suits huddled in the truck bed. At least put them in overalls. For now, the Virginia senator’s my pick. He’s got the deft touch with social conservatives and is too darn friendly to scare the moderates. Plus, the New Hampshire press raved about his June 25 speech. The Manchester Union Leader even compared him to Ronald Reagan!

Sam Brownback: The Kansas senator seemed a bit too eager to run when he was on CNN’s “Inside Politics” on June 29. Tone down the ambition for now, and go easy on the culture-war rhetoric. Stop talking about being the next Pat Robertson and just do it.

Jeb Bush: Love the guy. Nice family. But has he got the fire in the belly? Lacks his brother’s killer instinct. As Florida’s governor, overdid the whole Terri Schiavo mess. Made him look kinda wacky. Still, if it’s what Barbara wants, I might go with it. We could always keep Cheney on the ticket and save money on bumper stickers.

Bill Frist: Biggest disappointment of the pre-season. Thought the Tennessean was a sure bet when we made him majority leader, but he can’t handle John McCain and the other Senate wimps who say they’re Republican. But he can raise tons of cash, so they must string him along.

Newt Gingrich: So yesterday. Talks too much. And what a Gloomy Gus he was with those liberal weenies on National Public Radio on June 27, saying, “I believe that the world is inherently a very dangerous place, and that things that are now very good can go bad very quickly.” Sell your book, you has-been, and stay out of my shop.

Rudolph Giuliani: Team player in 2004; even upstaged McCain’s depressing speech at the New York convention. Yes! Wears Sept. 11 terrorist attacks mantle with grace and honor, but he’s “pro-choice” and starting to sound like he’s covering his bets on Iraq. When MSNBC’s Chris Matthews asked if the war is turning out be a bad idea, he said, “Oh, you never know. History proves us sometimes right and sometimes wrong.” Off the list for now.

Chuck Hagel: Nebraska’s senator is a useful stalking horse to challenge McCain as the news media’s favorite TV-friendly maverick with combat credentials. Better keep him in play, but sick of his second-guessing on Iraq. And he’s on the record for reinstating the draft. Stick to being a showboat senator and have a nice life, buddy.

Mike Huckabee: Definitely need to read his diet book, “Quit Digging Your Grave with a Knife and Fork.” Conservatives like the Arkansas governor, but the born-again marriage thing is a bit weird (Huckabee and his wife, Janet, joined the “covenant marriage” movement in February, voluntarily restricting their access to divorce). As a running mate, he might just keep his state from the Clintons. Sweet!

John McCain: What a pain! Can’t trust the guy. He’ll probably call for my indictment before it’s over with. But the Arizona senator keeps the loopy moderates busy while we hold the evangelicals in line. He and Hagel could split the center in GOP primaries as we drive on by in Allen’s pickup truck.

George E. Pataki: Just know we can turn the governor’s state someday. Putting New York in red in the Electoral College would be checkmate against the Democrats for my dream of a permanent Republican majority. Wouldn’t it be fun to make Hillary Rodham Clinton fight for her own state?

Condoleezza Rice: First need to get the secretary of State elected to something — maybe governor of California. Perhaps the White House in 2016.

Mitt Romney: Massachusetts governor is a Mormon. And evangelicals really don’t like Mormons.

Rick Santorum: A brave soul to carry our water on Social Security in a blue state. We owe the guy. But must keep him on hold until he proves he can win Senate re-election in Pennsylvania next year.

Note to press office: If Crawford impersonates me one more time, don’t ever give him that White House hard pass he’s been trying to get for six months. And don’t take any more calls from Bob Novak.

Contributing Editor Craig Crawford is a news analyst for MSNBC, CNBC and “The Early Show” on CBS. He can be reached at ccrawford@cq.com.

Source: CQ Weekly
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